REFERENDUM WATCH: The Great Referendum Scam

David Cameron is readying himself for his smoke and mirrors ‘showdown’ with the EU this month, boldly demanding trivial and inconsequential concessions for the UK in a heroic gladiatorial contest that has all the authenticity of a choreographed wrestling match. He will return in anticipatory triumph, all Chamberlainesque, waving a symbolically white piece of paper and declaring that ‘there will be capitulation in our time’. He might hope that the EU’s possible oh so gracious (and oh so vague) emergency brake on the payment of immigration benefits will also mean emergency brakes applied to the polls, which seem to indicate a move towards the Out vote, one poll in December showing the Leave campaign 9 points ahead. The average of 6 polls undertaken in January shows the In and Out campaign equal at 50% each – a seemingly impressive advance in the previously trailing Leave vote.

Alas, Cameron has little to worry about here. Another recent poll showed the Remain campaign a whopping 26 points ahead – and that asked the question as it will appear on the ballot paper. For the Leave campaign to have a chance, they need to have established a consistent lead in double digits by this stage. The pull of the status quo and the fear induced by the cynically hysterical scaremongering of the Remain campaign will create almost insurmountable barriers. Even more depressing is that the money is on a Remain vote: Predict It, a political, real-money site that trades in predictions, puts the probability of Britain remaining as high as 78%.

For Euro-realists such as myself this all makes for depressing reading. The only way Leave might win is if an eruption of major incidents arising from immigration provides the voters with a blunt wake-up call. As Bismarck wisely declared: ‘Events are stronger than the plans of men’. Sad to say, these will probably be of a distressing nature, such as happened at Cologne, and will be disastrous in scope due to mass immigration from beyond Europe.

What happened at Cologne (and Hamburg, and Stuttgart, and other places that have not made the news) is a sign of things to come in Europe. The corralling and surrounding of women by mobs of young men in order to sexually assault them is an established practice in some Arabian countries, this nauseating phenomenon seemingly going under the name of taharrush gamea. Even super-liberal Scandinavia can no longer suppress recorded cases of Arabic immigrants involved in sexual crimes, exposing themselves and openly masturbating in public swimming pools, and sexually harassing girls as young as twelve. With criminal complaints from the citizens of Cologne approaching an astonishing figure of 1,000, there is inevitably an anti-immigration backlash occurring, as liberal states get mugged by reality.

Of course, western countries have enough low-lives of our own that commit such crimes, but it is the scale of it in the wake of mass immigration that is so disturbing. It should not come as a surprise. Europe’s delusional, narcissistic and patronising image mirroring cannot comprehend that other cultures than our own not only exist but – what gall! – do not consider themselves to be inferior. There are many impulses for the mass migration into Europe, but our views on female equality are not one of them.

Everyone knows what so many politicians and liberals try to hide: despite deeply upsetting images displayed on our TV screens of families in distress, the overwhelming number of immigrants are made up of young males. Conservative estimates put this at around 75%. Given that there were 1.1 million ‘asylum’ seekers arriving in Germany last year, this means the presence of over 750,000 young, testosterone-fuelled males who are bored, mostly without work, from arguably misogynistic cultures and, most significantly of all, single and sexually frustrated . What could possibly go wrong? Ask Cologne.

Obviously, the perpetrators make up a small minority, but cultural differences exacerbate the situation dramatically, and the sheer scale of the numbers makes this minority a very significant one. Jane Kelly’s recent blogs importantly chart the increase of such sexual crimes. The situation is likely to get worse with, with over 3 million immigrants expected to attempt to reach Europe this year. Most are destined for benefits: one leading German businessman calculates that 80% of last year’s influx have no workplace skills whatsoever. That might mean another 2 million-plus young, out or work, bored, single males added to the already volatile mix.

Merkel promises punishment and deportation of Cologne’s immigrant offenders. But most of the perpetrators will not be identified. However, even those that are found guilty will not easily be ejected, as German law does not allow for deportation of immigrant criminals with sentences of under three years: lesser sexual crimes (unlike rape) do not incur such a sentence. One Arabic immigrant in Sweden openly declared in an interview that a few months in prison would not deter anyone from sexual predation and that it might even be welcome. Nor will Merkel’s New Year’s Eve address to the nation – for the first time broadcast with Arabic subtitles (a sign of things to come) – have no impact. No wonder 63% of Germans now feel that their country is host to too many immigrants. And no wonder that right-wing parties such as the Sweden Democrats are flourishing in Europe. Unless the situation is addressed sensibly and robustly, the danger is that EU ineptitude and excessive liberalism on immigration will provide a fertile breeding ground for the far right.

The EU’s response is, as usual, as lamentable as it is disturbing. Not least disconcerting are the plans being put into action for the EU’s border force. Frans Timmermans, the EU Commission’s First Vice-President, is putting into effect the Quick Reaction Force to police Europe’s borders. Euro-realists rightly fear the emergence of a nascent European army (the QRF will see an eight-fold increase in size on its predecessor).The QRF will be able to launch emergency interventions in a country regardless of whether that country wants it to or not. As Guy Verhofstadt, the Euro-extremist leader of the misnamed Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe grouping, stated in a recent interview: ‘Good management is far more important than sovereignty’. Unsurprisingly, the EU intends to protect Europe’s external borders by undermining its internal ones.

Even more alarming is the EU’s renewal of its wooing of Turkey, promising more positive consideration to its accession plans in return for its help in stemming the migratory masses from the Middle East. The full implications of this will almost certainly be too late to make an impact on an early referendum; but the madness of closer integration with a country that borders Iraq, Iran and Syria is beyond words and will only exacerbate current problems exponentially.

More influential would be the sudden blow-up of a hotspot. Attention has drifted away from the Ukraine; at any time that could be making the headlines again. But the EU’s relentless eastern drive, of which the Ukraine forms part, could still stir things up in an instance. Little reported but of potential real significance was the recent outburst of violence in Pristina. Here the EU is crassly and insensitively promoting greater autonomy for Serbs in Kosovo (a country Serbia does not even recognise), resulting in Molotov cocktails being lobbed at the main government building. At any moment here or elsewhere, another crisis could erupt with a truly explosive impact on the referendum. I maintain that the EU’s geopolitical ambitions are by far the most dangerous aspect of this undemocratic entity and form the single most important – and universally overlooked – reason for voting to leave it.

So Cameron will embark on his referendum campaign, pretending to play tough and hailing any illusionary concessions he wins in February as glorious, hard-won victories. They will be nothing of the sort. Even if all his ‘demands’ were to be met in full (they won’t be) they would not make barely a jot’s worth of difference to the UK’s current subservient relationship with the EU; they certainly will not have any effect on immigration into this country, as he disingenuously claims. Cameron, that oleaginous peddler of piffle, is, in the absence of a major event, likely to get away with one of the greatest frauds ever aimed at Britain. And it is our Prime Minister who has devised the scam.

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