Despite Brussels’ protestations that the EU Referendum is a once-only offer, if Britain votes ‘out’ the EU will be forced to come cap in hand asking us to reconsider. We are the fifth largest economy in the world and unlike Brussels (23 years trying conclude a trade deal with the US and still trying) we hold an open door both culturally and financially to the entire globe. Without us the EU cannot survive. Another, possibly even greater, benefit will be that David (double-talk) Cameron will be forced to resign. The new leader, hopefully Boris Johnson, will be able to negotiate a far tougher deal preserving our independence as well as our frontiers. If we vote to stay we will lose both.
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Not just a large economy, but home to the Mother of Parliaments – which was reduced to being a handmaiden of the EU.
Surely, letting our children live in a democracy is an even bigger plus for Brexit.
A vote to leave must be better than a vote to remain, whatever the consequences. Suddenly states like Italy may wake up and think if Britain can do it so can we. It is said many people in Europe want their own referenda.
We must be realistic; it is likely “Project Fear” will work for the remain camp. A significant number of voters – possibly a decisive segment of the electorate – who while disliking the loss of sovereignty inherent in EU membership will nevertheless vote to remain. The worst possible result for the country would be a clear win for the remain side: Brussels would be emboldened to crack the whip with demands for more money and orders to take our “fair share” of migrants now entering Europe. We need to avoid this calamity, so while keenly desiring a win for Brexit must also draw encouragement from a close result to stay, since it offers hope of fighting another day quite soon. The Brexit campaign needs therefore to supply reassurance to the undecided, especially women. It has to be understood that we are not leaving Europe. We are seeking a better accommodation with our neighbours and showing them that they too might be independent nations.
If Johnson or Gove or A.N.Other-Tory becomes Tory Party leader off the back of the Leave campaign we will know that it’s never really been about leaving the EU. It’s only ever been about the Tories and their desire to hold onto political power, or whatever semblance of it the EU will allow a collection of notables.
It’s all about them. Vote to Remain and it’s a vote for Cameron, who will declare it a referendum on Tory government. Vote to Leave and it’s a vote for the Tories of Vote Leave, and their future elevation in the ranks of the Tory Party. It’s all about the Tory Party.
An exit vote will trigger a new round of negotiations? This is Cameron’s position, Mark 2. And then these negotiations will result in a second referendum, the EU’s standard trap for electorates who have the temerity to think that they can reject the Project.
If these renegotiations are proposed by the Tories of Vote Leave we will know that they haven’t been any more serious about Britain leaving the EU than was Cameron. They were a decoy.
Yes, a bonus would be Cameron’s resignation. The Conservative Party are welcome to have Johnson as leader, though Mr Osborne might have something to say about that.
But why would Boris or anyone else need to renegotiate a ‘tougher deal’ with the EU if we intend to leave it? How could Britain’s borders and independence be negotiated? If Britain is to remain in the single market there are things that Britain will have to compromise on.
If Britain is critical to the EU’s survival then the EU cannot let us go, either from the political union or the single market. There could not be an amicable divorce. To think that the EU would allow Britain to have better terms because we are vital to its survival is to believe that the EU could be reformed, that Britain rather than Germany is the major partner, and that Cameron’s intended renegotiation was the correct thing to do and could have genuinely succeeded if only he’d been more forceful. But is this what the Leave campaigns are really campaigning about? After all, they are called Leave.
I am dismayed that anyone could believe that an exit vote is not really a vote to leave but rather turning the screw for further negotiating. If the EU did believe the moonshine that Cameron seriously intended to leave then they would have given him all he asked for and more.
‘We voted to leave but we really wanted to stay all along’ is hardly a position of strength. Having frightened the other EU member states and the Commission they will want to make sure that there can be no further possibility of a Brexit. Whatever baubles Britain would get in a second round of renegotiations, expect rapid and deeper regionalisation, devolution, and Scottish independence to follow.
This is exactly right. The advantages of an exit vote will trigger fresh negotiations from a position of strength. The gains, either way, leave or stay, could be transformational.
Boris, eh? Should be interesting!